[hat and bread]

Originally Posted by nicfit

p.s. lately I'm reconsidering some places due to earthquake/hurricanes threaths.

I recently learned that I moved to exactly the most dangerous spot for earthquakes in the entire world. When this thing goes down I'll be wiped out in a tsunami within 5 minutes. Hurray!

The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 25 years. All of Japan is earthquake country, but its most dangerous part is on the Pacific coast of the main island Honshu, just southwest of Tokyo. Here the Philippine plate is moving under the Eurasian plate in an extensive subduction zone. From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment.
Tokai Earthquake History

The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498.
zSB(3,3)


The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2005, it has been 151 years and counting. These facts were put together in the 1970s by Katsuhiko Ishibashi. In 1978 the legislature adopted the Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act. In 1979 the Tokai segment was declared an "area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster."
Research began into the historic earthquakes and tectonic structure of the Tokai area. Widespread, persistent public education raised awareness about the expected effects of the Tokai Earthquake. Looking back and visualizing forward, we are not trying to predict the Tokai Earthquake at a specific date, but to clearly foresee it before it happens.